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Good morning, Coin Discoverers!

• BTC: $40,791 (+2.14%) YTD (-2.63%)

• ETH: $2,241 (+1.09%) YTD (-1.93%)

• BNB: $302 (+3.04%) YTD (-2.67%)

*Crypto numbers as of 8:00 pm EST on January 25th

11 Bitcoin miners may not mine profitably post halving: Cantor Fitzgerald

Eleven of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners may struggle to mine Bitcoin profitably if the price of BTC fails to increase significantly after the halving, analysts at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald have reportedly found.

A Jan. 25 post to X from CleanSpark executive chairman and co-founder Matthew Shultz — which cited research from Cantor Fitzgerald — found that many Bitcoin miners, including Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and Core Scientific, may come under increased pressure following the Bitcoin halving, as the Bitcoin miners receive from their operations may fail to outweigh the costs.

While it’s worth noting that while Bitcoin miners’ revenues are closely linked to the price of Bitcoin, an executive from Luxor notes that miners often employ strategies to hedge potential losses that arise from Bitcoin price volatility.

The United Kingdom-based miner Argo Blockchain (ARBK) and Florida-based Hut 8 mining were shown as the most potentially unprofitable after halving, (at the current price of Bitcoin), with an “all in” cost-per-coin rate of $62,276 and $60,360, respectively.

The only firms that Cantor analysts expected to maintain profitability following the halving — assuming an average price of $40,000 Bitcoin and no drastic changes in hash rate — were Singapore-based miner Bitdeer and the United States mining firm CleanSpark.

Cantor’s “all in per coin” metric refers to the total costs a Bitcoin miner would incur in producing a single Bitcoin, including electricity costs, hosting fees, and other cash expenses.

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Bitwise Bitcoin ETF wallet attracts inscriptions and rare sats donations

Asset management firm Bitwise made the Bitcoin address of its spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) public on Jan. 24, becoming the first of the 10 spot BTC ETF issuers to do so. The Bitcoin wallet address has received multiple tips and donations within hours of being public, including some Bitcoin ordinals and rare sats.

The wallet address currently holds inscriptions donations worth $6,083 and holds a total of over 16,000 inscriptions. These inscriptions include two RSIC airdrops, one Bitcoin Punk, one Bitcoin Burials, one Quadkey, and several others. The account also holds thousands of BRC-20 inscriptions; however, there are no valid/active BRC-20 balances in the account.

STOCKS

• DOW: 38,049 (+0.64%)

• S&P: 4,894 (+0.53%)

• NASDAQ: 15,510 (+0.18%)

*Stock numbers as of market close on January 25th

Procter & Gamble price hikes boost revenue while Gillette write-down weighs on earnings

Here’s what P&G reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $1.84 adjusted vs. $1.70 expected

• Revenue: $21.44 billion vs. $21.48 billion expected

P&G reported fiscal second-quarter net income attributable to the company of $3.47 billion, or $1.40 per share, down from $3.93 billion, or $1.59 per share, a year earlier.

Shares of the company closed up more than 4% on Tuesday.

The Tide detergent owner wrote down the value of razor brand Gillette by $1.3 billion, following through on an announcement it made in December. The company previously said it would record up to $2.5 billion in charges over the next two fiscal years related to Gillette impairment charges and restructuring its business in some markets, like Argentina and Nigeria.

Excluding the impacts of restructuring and intangible impairment, the company earned $1.84 per share, and topped analysts’ projections.

Net sales rose 3% to $21.44 billion, shy of what Wall Street had anticipated. P&G’s organic revenue, which strips out the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange, climbed 4% in the quarter.

Demand has improved in North America and Western Europe, executives said on the company’s conference call. However, other markets saw weaker demand. For example, Greater China saw its organic sales shrink 15%.

P&G also noted that the Middle East saw weaker demand, although CEO Jon Moeller said the company hopes that recent tensions there, flared by the Israel-Hamas war, will ease.

The grooming division, which includes Gillette, saw volume grow 1% in the quarter.

P&G’s beauty segment reported flat volume for the quarter as sales of its pricey SK-II skin-care brand continued to struggle, particularly in China. Its fabric and home-care business also reported flat volume.

The company’s health-care division reported volume declines of 3%. P&G said the market for respiratory products, like its brand Vicks, shrank during the quarter because of a delayed start to the cold and flu season.

P&G’s feminine, baby and family care business saw its volume fall 2% in the quarter, fueled by shrinking demand for its diapers and tampons. Of that division, only its family care segment, which includes Bounty paper towels, saw volume increase.

For fiscal 2024, the company now anticipates core earnings per share growth of 8% to 9%, narrowing its prior range of 6% to 9%. However, it now expects unadjusted earnings per share to be flat to down 1%, significantly lower than a prior range of 6% to 9% growth.

P&G reiterated its forecast for fiscal 2024 sales growth of 2% to 4%.

ECONOMY

• GOLD: $2,023 (+0.29%)

• AVG GAS: $3.103

• WTI CRUDE OIL: $76.74 (-0.80%)

  *Economy numbers as of January 25th

US economy brushes aside recession fearmongering with strong Q4 performance

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared with the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

In addition to the better-than-expected GDP move, there also was some progress on inflation.

Core prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Federal Reserve prefers as a longer-term inflation measure, rose 2% for the period, while the headline rate was 1.7%.

On an annual basis, the PCE price index rose 2.7%, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared with 5.1%.

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains and better than the 1.9% increase in 2022.

As had been the case through the year, a strong pace of consumer spending helped drive the expansion. Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8% for the quarter, down just slightly from the previous period.

State and local government spending also contributed, up 3.7%, as did a 2.5% increase in federal government expenditures. Gross private domestic investment rose 2.1%, another significant factor for the robust quarter.

The chain-weighted price index, which accounts for prices as well as changes in consumer behavior, increased 1.5% for the quarter, down sharply from 3.3% in the previous period and below the Wall Street estimate for a 2.5% acceleration.

REAL ESTATE

• 15-year: 6.29%

• 30-year: 6.90%

*Mortage rates via Mortgage News Daily

Homebuyer demand pushes mortgage applications higher, even as interest rates inch up again

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 8% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand, however, was still 18% lower than the same week one year ago, when rates were lower.

Applications to refinance a home loan fell 7% for the week and were 8% lower than a year ago. With rates still higher than they were last year, and significantly above where they were two years ago when refinancing was booming, there is little incentive for most borrowers.

Mortgage rates moved higher at the start of this week, although there appears to be no particular reason for the increase. The average rate on the 30-year fixed, according to Mortgage News Daily, is now 6.92%.

TECH

AI hiring frenzy to fuel layoffs in other tech segments as firms strive to balance costs

As tech firms prioritize investments into artificial intelligence and go on a hiring spree, other segments are likely to see layoffs continue into 2024, according to industry experts.

More than 20,000 tech employees have already lost jobs so far in 2024, according to tracker layoffs.fyi.

“Google and the rest of Big Tech are betting big on AI while cutting back on non-strategic areas. Layoffs will continue to happen for Big Tech in some areas while the hiring frenzy in AI will be unprecedented as this arms race continues across the tech world,” Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities, said.

Other companies too are looking to cut jobs to focus on their AI-driven businesses.

Mass layoffs began in 2022 and extended through 2023 as global macroeconomic headwinds such as high interest and inflation rates caused consumers to pull back on spending amid uncertainty in the global economy.

QUICK RECAP 

#1. KLA Corp. (KLAC -7.10%) following second-quarter profit miss.

#2. Tesla (TSLA -12%) after the company warned of slowing growth in 2024.

#3. T-Mobile (TMUS -3%) after fourth-quarter earnings missed analysts’ estimates.